How we make predictions
Hiring data is a leading indicator. Job postings move 60–120 days before public announcements — before press releases, before regulatory filings, before product launches.
We look for specific patterns: compliance hiring that outpaces engineering (signals a regulatory submission), a surge in product roles for a specific domain (signals a product launch), legal hires in a new jurisdiction (signals geographic expansion).
Every prediction has a stated confidence level and a deadline. If the event happens before the deadline, it's marked correct. If it doesn't, it's marked expired. We don't move the deadline.
Predictions are only made on exchanges with sufficient hiring data — typically 50+ active roles — where the signal is clear enough to call.
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