What Hiring Data Cannot Predict
We believe in radical transparency about what our methodology cannot do. Here are the genuine limitations.
Limitation 1: Black Swan Events
FTX-style collapses do not show up in hiring data in advance. The collapse was fast, the regulatory enforcement was external, and the hiring data (which was never public) would not have predicted it. For catastrophic failure risk, hiring data is not the right tool.
Limitation 2: Prices and Timing
We predict that announcements will happen, not what price action will follow. OKX announcing their L2 does not guarantee any specific market response. The intelligence is about events, not markets.
Limitation 3: Private Exchanges
We track public job boards. Exchanges can conduct strategic planning, partnerships, and deals entirely without public job postings. Some announcements have no hiring precursor at all (especially quick opportunistic decisions).
Limitation 4: M&A Precision
We can identify that M&A activity is likely (from corp dev hiring) but cannot identify the target or structure. Our Gemini M&A prediction is 71% confident — not because of weak signal but because M&A targets are not visible in hiring data.
What to Use Instead
For market timing: on-chain flow data (Nansen). For M&A specifics: industry contacts and financial filings. For token fundamentals: Messari. Hiring data is one layer of a complete intelligence stack.