How to Read Signalmap Prediction Timelines (And When They Slip)
Prediction timelines are educated estimates, not deadlines. Here's the full methodology behind how we set them — and what timeline slippage actually means.
How We Set Timelines
Timelines are set based on: the average signal-to-announcement lead time for similar signals (6.2 weeks overall), exchange-specific historical patterns (Coinbase tends to act faster; OKX slower), and any externally known constraints (regulatory deadlines, conference announcements).
Timeline Confidence Ranges
We express timelines as ranges, not dates:
- "Q2 2026" = April-June 2026
- "Q2-Q3 2026" = April-September 2026 (wider uncertainty)
- "4-8 weeks" = when we have higher timing confidence based on specific signals
When Predictions Slip
A prediction that passes its timeline without resolving enters "extended" status. This can mean: (1) our timeline was wrong but the thesis is correct, (2) an external factor (regulatory delay) pushed the timeline, or (3) the signal was a false positive.
We distinguish between these in our weekly brief and update confidence scores accordingly.
Historical Timeline Accuracy
Of our resolved correct predictions: 72% resolved within the original timeline. 28% were correct but took longer than expected — mostly regulatory-dependent predictions.