How Prediction Resolution Works
Prediction resolution is the most important part of our methodology — it is where we prove (or disprove) the signal thesis. Here is the complete process.
What Counts as Resolution
Announced (correct): The exchange officially announces what we predicted, within the stated time horizon. We verify with a primary source (exchange press release, regulatory filing, or verifiable news coverage).
Incorrect: The time horizon expires without the predicted event occurring, OR the exchange announces something that clearly contradicts the prediction.
Active: Within the prediction horizon, no resolution yet.
The Verification Standard
We require a primary source for every resolution. Social media speculation does not count. An exchange blog post, press release, or regulatory document does count. We publish the verification source with every resolution announcement.
What We Do Not Count as Correct
Partial matches do not count as correct. If we predicted "OKX announces L2 mainnet" and they announce a testnet, that is "active" not "correct." We are strict about this to maintain accuracy integrity.
How to Get Notified
Pro subscribers receive an email alert the moment a prediction resolves, with the verification source and our analysis of what it means for related signals.