What Signalmap's Prediction Confidence Scores Mean (And Don't Mean)
Every prediction we publish has a confidence score from 50% to 95%. Here's the full explanation of how to read them.
How Confidence Scores Are Calculated
Confidence is driven by four inputs:
- Signal strength — how many categories are firing and at what intensity
- Historical base rate — how often similar hiring patterns led to the predicted outcome
- Specificity — broad "expansion" predictions score lower than specific "EU regulatory filing" predictions
- Timeline clarity — predictions with vague timelines get a penalty
What the Scores Mean
50-64%: Speculative. Worth watching, not betting on.
65-74%: Elevated. Meaningful signal, real uncertainty remains.
75-84%: High confidence. This is where most of our best calls live.
85-95%: Very high confidence. Rare — requires strong multi-category convergence.
What Confidence Scores Don't Mean
A 90% confidence score doesn't mean a 90% probability of the event happening. It means 90% of our training patterns with this signal profile resolved as predicted. Past patterns may not repeat perfectly.
Also: even correct predictions can be early. A 90% confidence prediction might resolve in 3 weeks or 12 weeks.