Q2 2026 Prediction Track Record: Our Best Quarter Yet
With Q2 2026 now closing, here's the full prediction performance review.
Q2 2026 Numbers
Total predictions resolved in Q2: 18
Correct: 16 (89%)
Incorrect: 2 (11%)
Average lead time: 6.8 weeks (above our overall average)
New record: best accuracy quarter in model history
The Confirmed Calls
Coinbase EU CASP License — Correct (81% → confirmed)
OKX VARA Products Expansion — Correct (74% → confirmed)
Bybit EU Legal Entity — Correct (72% → confirmed)
Kraken Capital Markets Event — Correct (76% → confirmed)
Binance India PIX Integration — Correct (74% → confirmed)
OKX EU CASP License — Correct (74% → confirmed)
Coinbase Institutional Custody Expansion — Correct (78% → confirmed)
The Misses
Two predictions missed: Coinbase Consumer App Redesign (65% confidence — delayed to Q3) and Binance Stablecoin Partnership (69% — deal structure changed, not the prediction we expected).
What Q3 Looks Like
14 active predictions carrying over from Q2 into Q3. Several have very short timelines. Q3 may rival Q2 for resolution density.