Q2 2026 Midpoint: Exchange Hiring Signal Check-In
Q2 2026 is halfway through. Here's a comprehensive check-in on how our predictions are tracking.
Q2 Resolutions So Far
3 predictions have resolved in Q2 to date (of 14 active Q2 predictions):
— [OKX-VARA-EXPANSION]: Resolved CORRECT May 8. OKX announced expanded VARA-licensed products in Dubai. Lead time: 11 weeks. ✓
— [BYBIT-EU-REG]: Resolved CORRECT May 15. Bybit announced EU legal entity formation. Lead time: 8 weeks. ✓
— [BINANCE-LATAM-PIX]: Still pending — expected this month.
High-Confidence Q2 Predictions Still Open
[COINBASE-EU-CASP] (81%) — Peak window. Watching closely.
[KRAKEN-IPO] (76%) — Now in Q2-Q3 window. Any public statement changes everything.
[OKX-EU-CASP] (74%) — Behind Coinbase but coming.
[COINBASE-MA] (76%) — M&A timing is hardest to predict precisely.
Score Updates
Gemini now above 66 — new prediction issued (65%). Kraken now at 80 — highest ever. Coinbase holding at 87. No significant declines.
Outlook for Second Half of Q2
Based on current signals, we expect 4-6 more predictions to resolve in the remaining 6 weeks of Q2. This would be the most active resolution quarter in our model history.