How Long Does a Hiring Signal Last?
Understanding signal duration helps set expectations for how long to monitor a signal before expecting resolution.
Signal Duration by Category
Product signals: Average 9.4 weeks from score crossing 85 to announcement. Range: 6–14 weeks. OKX's current streak (6 weeks at 90+) is within the normal range.
Regulatory/compliance signals: Average 11.2 weeks. Regulatory processes have external dependencies (regulator processing time) that extend duration.
IPO preparation signals: Average 18+ months. IPO builds are the longest signals in our dataset — they are structural, not event-driven.
M&A signals: Average 14 weeks for corp dev hiring to announcement. Deals can fall through, extending or terminating the signal.
Post-Resolution Pattern
After a prediction resolves, exchange hiring typically shows one of three patterns: (1) sharp decline (mission accomplished, team ships), (2) steady continuation (new initiative launches immediately), (3) shift to different department (product launched, now scaling ops).
What to Watch After OKX Resolves
After OKX's L2 announcement: watch for ecosystem development hiring (they will need to build the developer ecosystem), followed by product management for L2-native applications. The post-announcement signal will be the next prediction.