Day 4: Predictions, Confidence, and Horizons
Day 4 of the Signalmap free course on exchange hiring signals.
From Signal to Prediction
A signal is an observation (OKX has 89 PMs). A prediction is a testable claim about the future (OKX will announce a major product by end of May 2026). The translation requires pattern matching against historical precedents.
The Confidence Score
Confidence reflects how strongly the current signal matches historical patterns that preceded similar events. 88% = the signal pattern has preceded this type of event 88% of the time in our dataset. It is not certainty — it is a probabilistic assessment.
Why We Publish 60%+ Only
Below 60%, the signal is genuinely ambiguous. We call these "watch list" signals and monitor without publishing. 60%+ is our threshold for saying "the evidence is strong enough to be actionable."
The Time Horizon
Each prediction has a horizon — the window in which we expect resolution. OKX: "by end of May 2026." If May 31 passes without resolution, we either extend the horizon (if signal remains strong) or mark incorrect (if signal has weakened).
Our Current Best Prediction
OKX L2/Web3 product: 88% confidence, end of May 2026 horizon. This is the highest confidence we have published in 18 months.
Tomorrow
Day 5: How to build your own signal monitoring routine using our free tools.