Deep Dive: Our Bybit EU Regulatory Prediction (72% Confidence)
Bybit has historically operated in Europe as an unregulated offshore exchange. That appears to be changing. Here's the full evidence behind our EU prediction.
Why This Matters
MiCA requires exchanges serving EU customers to have a CASP license. Without it, Bybit cannot legally market to EU customers after MiCA's transition period ends. The hiring suggests they're getting ahead of this.
The Hiring Evidence
"Head of EU Regulatory Affairs" — Posted December 2025. The most senior EU-specific role in Bybit's history. Clear intent signal.
6 "MiCA Compliance" roles — All posted between October 2025 and February 2026. Building the compliance team for a CASP license application.
"EU Legal Entity Counsel" — 2 roles. Legal entity formation is the prerequisite for CASP application.
"EU Operations Lead" — Operational management of the European entity-in-formation.
The Prediction
Bybit announces EU legal entity formation OR CASP license application in Q2-Q3 2026 (confidence: 72%). The exact milestone (entity formation vs license filing vs approval) depends on how fast EU regulators process their application.
What Would Change Our View
If EU regulatory hiring cools significantly. If Bybit makes a public statement about deprioritizing EU compliance. Neither of those is evident currently.