How Exchange Hiring Signals Differ in Bull vs Bear Markets
A hiring surge in a bear market means something different than the same surge in a bull market. Our model accounts for this — here's how.
Bull Market Hiring Patterns
In bull markets, all exchanges hire more. Customer support scales to handle volume, marketing ramps up, and engineering builds features for the new users flooding in. Most of this hiring is reactive, not strategic.
During bull periods, we apply a "bull market discount" to our signal scores — raising the threshold for what counts as meaningful above-baseline activity.
Bear Market Hiring Patterns
In bear markets, most hiring freezes. The exchanges that are still hiring aggressively in a bear market are making deliberate, strategic bets. Bear market hiring signals are much stronger indicators of intent.
Our most accurate predictions historically come from bear market signals — because the signal-to-noise ratio is much higher.
Where We Are Now (2026)
Current market conditions are what we call "late cycle recovery" — past the bear bottom but not in full bull mode. Hiring patterns are selective: exchanges hiring now are making specific strategic plays, not just scaling for volume.
This is historically one of the best signal environments we see.