What Signalmap Doesn't Track (And Why We're Honest About It)
We're more credible when we're honest about what we don't know. Here are the genuine gaps in our signal model.
What We Don't Track
Internal Communications
We only see public hiring data. If an exchange makes a strategic decision that doesn't require new external hires — acquisitions of already-staffed teams, pivots of existing resources, or decisions that rely on existing headcount — we miss it.
Private Company Disclosures
We don't have access to board presentations, investor updates, or internal roadmaps. These sometimes telegraph moves that hiring doesn't.
Non-Public Job Postings
Some roles are filled via referral or executive search without public postings. High-level leadership hires (C-suite, VPs) are often not posted publicly — which means our model can miss leadership changes.
Contractor and Agency Hiring
We track permanent employment. Contractors and agencies — which some exchanges use for speed — don't show up in our data.
How We Compensate
Our four-gate filter (signal threshold, multi-category confirmation, role specificity, analyst judgment) is partly designed to compensate for these gaps — requiring strong public signals before issuing predictions.
We'd rather miss a prediction than make a wrong one.