18-Month Accuracy Review: Testing Our Predictions
We commit to radical transparency on prediction accuracy. Here is the complete 18-month review.
The Numbers
76 total predictions tracked. 12 resolved (10 correct, 2 incorrect, 0 expired). 64 active. Accuracy rate: 83.3%.
Why Only 12 Have Resolved
Most predictions have 90-day horizons. We started publishing predictions 18 months ago, but many early predictions had long horizons (180+ days). The resolution rate will accelerate in 2026 as our prediction volume has increased significantly.
The 2 Incorrect Predictions
Binance US expansion (2025): 12 BD roles in specific US states. We predicted state expansion. Reality: normal operational hiring. We over-indexed on geographic specificity. Lesson: BD roles require additional corroborating signals.
Gemini product launch (Q4 2025): Gemini's score briefly hit 55 before declining. We predicted a product launch. Reality: the score rise was aborted as the freeze started. Lesson: Trend reversals can create false signals — velocity direction matters.
What We Changed
Both misses have improved our model. BD roles now require 3+ additional signals before we publish. Trend reversals now flag as "watch" rather than triggering a prediction immediately.